The Next Plague?
Author: COMAP
Background:
In 2014, the world saw the infectious Ebola virus spreading in western Africa. Throughout human history, epidemics have come and gone with some infecting and/or killing thousands and lasting for years and others taking less of a human toll. Some believe these events are just nature’s way of controlling the growth of a species while others think they could be a conspiracy or deliberate act to cause harm. This problem will most likely come down to how to expend (or not expend) scarce resources (doctors, containment facilities, money, research, serums, etc...) to deal with a crisis.
Situation:
A routine humanitarian mission on an island in Indonesia reported a small village where almost half of its 300 inhabitants are showing similar symptoms. In the past week, 15 of the "infected" have died. This village is known to trade with nearby villages and other islands. Your modeling team works for a major center of disease control in the capital of your country (or if you prefer, for the International World Health Organization).
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