Network Modeling of Earth's Health

Background:

Society is interested in developing and using models to forecast the biological and environmental health conditions of our planet. Many scientific studies have concluded that there is growing stress on Earth's environmental and biological systems, but there are very few global models to test those claims. The UN-backed Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report found that nearly two-thirds of Earth's life-supporting ecosystems— including clean water, pure air, and stable climate— are being degraded by unsustainable use. Humans are blamed for much of this damage. Soaring demands for food, fresh water, fuel, and timber have contributed to dramatic environmental changes; from deforestation to air, land, and water pollution. Despite the considerable research being conducted on local habitats and regional factors, current models do not adequately inform decision makers how their provincial polices may impact the overall health of the planet. Many models ignore complex global factors and are unable to determine the long-range impacts of potential policies. While scientists realize that the complex relationships and cross-effects in myriad environmental and biological systems impact Earth's biosphere, current models often ignore these relationships or limit the systems' connections. The system complexities manifest in multiple interactions, feedback loops, emergent behaviors, and impending state changes or tipping points. The recent Nature article written by 22 internationally known scientists entitled "Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere" outlines many of the issues associated with the need for scientific models and the importance of predicting potential state changes of the planetary health systems